Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
